The international economy and the absence of stability

The global economy is still witnessing a state of uncertainty as a result of a number of developments in the international arena, a condition that increases the destabilization of the global economy.

Many of the analyzes revealed recently about the existence of indicators that the global economy could see some sort of recession again and a stage of profound changes, especially with what we see today of rapid shifts in major global economies.

In the works of the Group of Twenty summit in China’s Chengdu City, the participants warned that Britain’s decision to leave the European Union exacerbates the uncertainty and ambiguity about the global economy, and pledged their willingness to use all the financial and monetary policy tools to support the global economy and the coordination among them, pointing out that their good status allows them to address the potential economic and financial consequences proactively.

The agency of “Moody’s” of the credit rating warned of the risks of the debt in emerging economies , according to a recent report of the agency that the problem of debt in emerging markets is on the rise, and that will make these economies vulnerable to violent shocks if the international economic climate has changed negatively.

Here we refer to what was said by Economic Cooperation and Development organization (OECD) in its forecasts for this year , that the pace of global economic growth in advanced economies is slowing and declined in many emerging markets.

Also it can not be ignored the role played by other issues which are no less important than the British issue ,noting that there are other factors that pose an impediment in the way of the environment of the global economy, including “geopolitical conflicts, terrorism and the wave of immigrants, the issues were and remain the most important factors that determine the future of the economic environment.

The International Monetary Fund earlier reduced its forecast for global economic growth for the years 2016 and 2017, warning that continued uncertainty for a long period may lead to the greater economic slowdown . Fund experts have amended the expected economic growth rate from 3.5% to 3.1% until the end of this year.

Also, there are other challenges that threaten global growth, especially the slowdown in the Chinese economy, as well as terrorist attacks and the failed coup attempt in Turkey.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has stressed that “the world can not rely on China alone to save it from the implications of Britain’s decision to exit from the European Union” Brixt, “stressing that” it is impossible to bear the burden of the whole world. “

He called on the International Monetary Fund and some countries, notably Germany and the United States, to increase public spending. And the Group of Twenty called on in its final statement to use “all available tools” to revive economic activity and to promote spending on infrastructure “, in order to encourage growth rates, and then the end of the recession afflicting the global economy at this stage.

The World Bank also reduced in an earlier forecast for world economic growth of 2.4 percent this year, down from a its predict in January that the ratio of the global growth of 2.9 percent .

Currently , the exit of Britain from the world stock markets has caused US $ 2.1 trillion, it is the largest sixth economy in the world with an estimated size to 2.678 trillion dollars ,and it is the most important event on the level of the world which has had a prominent role and is still in the confusion of the world economy, and the imposition of a state of uncertainty on the future of the global economy, and perhaps we will see a violent jolt, especially in the money and stock and currency markets.

And between the attempts to address the economic and financial consequences of the decision of Britain to come out of the European Union, and the slowdown in the Chinese economy, and strive to achieve a sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth, the state of uncertainty remains to dominate the global economy , and perhaps this situation will continue to the next year.

Amer Al-Omran

Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center