Battle of Mosul and the conflict to tighten the influence on Iraq

The surprise visit of the US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter in the atheist of current July to the Baghdad and announcing the determination of the United States to send 560 extra troops to Iraq left rejecting reactions by Shiite militias. the senior leaders of the militias feared of the growing US involvement in the war against the terrorist organization Daash on Iraqi territory that leads to a reduction of the role of their armed sectarian formations in that war . This means that in total, to curb the extended Iranian influence in Iraq, which is shifting from merely to influence the political decision of the country to field control via the militias engaged in fighting Daash within the popular crowd, and indebted to Tehran by financial and logistical support and to give it political cover .

In this context, the Shiite forces in Iraq, expressed its rejection of Carter’s remarks noting that the Secretary General of the Organization «Badr» and leader of the popular crowd , Hadi al-Amiri, announced his rejection to the arrival of additional US troops to Iraq to participate in the battle to liberate Mosul. He said in a statement, «We reject the US defense secretary’s remarks about sending 560 US soldiers to participate in the operations of the liberation of the city». He noted in the statement that «everyone should know that Iraqis are able to liberate their country, just as we liberated Paji and Fallujah and Qayyarah , we are able to liberate Mosul», stressing that “firm rejection for the land presence of US troops, because the Iraqi people reject the replacement of Daash by the Americans .. our decision that Iraq is not a place for Daash or the Americans », and we confirm that the liberation of Mosul is a matter of time.”

As an expression of rejection of Hadi al-Ameri to send more US troops to Iraq, he said that “the Iraqis are able to liberate Mosul as liberated Baiji, Fallujah, Qayyarah,” noting that “the great experience gained by the the popular crowd and security services through military operations against terrorism, confirms that the liberation of Mosul is a matter of time. ” “The popular crowd forces would not be confined to a specific geographical basis and will take part in the battles to liberate Mosul in spite of the objectors, whether they are Iraqis, Arabs or foreigners.” For his part, Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr, announced that «US troops thathave been sent to Iraq would be a goal for us». As the militias popular crowd reviewing its military strength on Saadoun Street, heading to the square of Al-tahreer of the center of the Iraqi capital Baghdad . such a review represents a response to the remarks of the US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter. these statements and review of the military are only part of the power struggle between Washington and Tehran, which is lining up on its side against any attempt to reduce its role in Iraq.

That the sudden visit of US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter to Baghdad, which coincided with the announcement of the Iraqi government to retake control of Qayyarah Air Base before few days and near the city of Mosul, which is the last great presence to the organization of Daash in Iraq, is to represent such an important progress in the war against it .The visit, which has taken the urgency impression is clearly shown that US President Barack Obama’s administration is keen to not to be exceeded by the events of war on Daash in Iraq and should not be resolved without their participation and away from their surveillance and control because the fate of the war is important in determining how much influence in the later stage.

With the recent announcement of the launch of the battle of Mosul, and because of their importance as the decisive battle in the war against al Daash, which will largely determine the future of Iraq and the nature of the regional and international influence within it. It emerged clearly ,two rival poles on the role in the battle between the United States, which has officially revealed its intention to participate more fully in the fight Daash in Nineveh province by sending more troops and experts and the establishment of a command center and control in Qayyarah Air Force Base, which was newly restored from Daash by Iraqi forces, and often what the US administration has shown interest in a concentration of military bases in Iraq, in the process of “rework” of US military presence on its territory which is described as “smart and concentrate ” due to its dependence on a small number of elite troops, rather than rely on large numbers that are more vulnerable to the dangers.

And between Iran since it had a significant role in the war against al Daash, since it do not miss to the mind of the American decision maker, noting that the war on organization of Daash in Iraq, has been made by active Iranian participation , either directly through military advisers, or by proxy by the Shiite militias formed for the popular crowd , in several battles in the provinces of Diyala, Salahuddin and Anbar, and direct attendance record of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. So the fear pervaded the inside and outside Iraq of great prominence of the militias of popular crowd, which is seen by observers of the Iraq war as an Iranian masked occupation Army of Iraq, especially in light of the collapse that has befallen to the regular Iraqi forces, with the control of the organization of Daash to the vast areas of the country, in the summer of 2014 . From this angle, it would mean to make way for the militias of polpular crowd to participate heavily in the battle of Mosul, and this is an opportunity for Iran to convert its political influence in Iraq to the actual field control. And isolate it from the Arab world, especially with the Gulf Arab states in Iraq after Daash stage.

Another view, sees the participation planned by the United States in the battle of Mosul and send additional troops to Iraq is not only to curb Iranian influence in Iraq, but also to block any influence of the Turkish ally in the post-Daash stage , and this American block comes in the context of strained relations between the United States and Turkey against the backdrop of conflicting visions of the priorities of the solution to the Syrian crisis and the resultant of serious implications for Turkish national security, especially with the escalation of the Kurdish – Syrian role backed US, noting that Turkey, when it failed to get a Turkish sphere of influence in northern Syria , it tended to impose it on northern Iraq under the pretext of participating in the war against al «Daash» but the refusal of Iraq to the military presence of Turkey backed by the US , and the enter of the United States as a direct and strong party in the war against «Daash» in the liberation battles «Ramadi» and then the liberation of «Fallujah» and now preparations for the Liberation of «Mosul » , deprived Turkey of achieving any influence in Iraq, in addition to the entering of organization« Daash » to moribund stage after defeats in the most important battles in Iraq, in addition to supporting of US to the so-called« Kurdish democratic Syria forces » in northern Syria in their war against« Daash », which put Americans a face to face in the face of Turkish ambitions in Syria and Iraq, so from here it can be understood the tarry of the United States in the condemnation of the military coup against the AKP government in Turkey, noting that the political analysis interpreted this tarry, that it involves two possibilities, only two , either the US is being a supporter or the blessing of the coup attempt.

The summary of saying : US-Iranian relations have ranged in pre- and after the occupation of Iraq in April / May 2003, between the consistence on weakening this country with huge capabilities and joint action to neutralize it to play an important role in the political, economic and security interactions in the Middle East environment, and between conflict for influence within it. The US-Iranian competition to win a role in the war on organizing Daash, created a circle in this ongoing conflict between the two countries, but it will not be the last, since the important thing is not the war per se, but how it will turn and come out of the new situation in Iraq which is seeking by all of the US administration and Iranian regime to invest it in order to serve their interests individually or perhaps to produce a share of their interests in Iraq and possibly to happen noting that the relations between countries of moving sands do not know stability.

Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center