The next battle of Mosul : alliances and surprises

9 يونيو,2016

الموصل-ـ-داعش

the pace of events are escalating and the internal situations are deteriorating in the city of Mosul, after two years of the presence of state regulation fighters and their control over the city after the events of the ninth of June 2014, that have been taken in many ways which had an impact on all political, economic and military levels and the areas surrounding the city witnessed many of the events and incidents and political alliances and regional and international interventions , and a new map was emerged in determining the paths of future for this city and the surrounding areas of it.
We may read the realistic scene for ancient city of Mosul within the following realities :
Reality on the ground (field reality) : the reality was characterized by the developments and events reflected negatively on the lives of citizens and the sustainability of their survival and the continuing of existence on earth because of the policies pursued by the leaders of the organization, which was characterized by the following:
1. The complete control and making severe tight on all joints of life and people is suffering from the interference and abuse on their lives within a systematic and regular program to inflict harm on them .
2. To demolish and destroy the historical and architectural relics that were witnessing to the depth and affiliation of the city to the world civilization in the regions and cities (Alhadher , Nimrod and Khor Seebad) and the civilized Museum of Mosul.
3. The control on the civil factories of the citizens from the owners of private sector and owned by Yazidis and the Christians, and disassembled it and transported directly to the Syrian Al-Raggah city.
4. Not allow for citizens to leave the city , but especially approvals and provide guarantees by guarantors as the mortgage of the real estate or residential and agricultural land as the guarantor for their return to the city after the completion of their business or confiscation of what had been provided of guarantees in the case of non – return.
5. Working to collect money from citizens of the owners of the shops, real estate offices and local markets despite the economic recession experienced by the city .
Military reality: the continuing of confrontations and offensives of armed nature and conflict with the continued air strikes by planes of the international coalition which are featured by the following:
1.Demolition the infrastructure of the city of Mosul because of the goals of the aerial bombardment of the Alliance and its targeting of the buildings , government institutions and universities of Mosul and Nineveh and stations of main service and ground exchanges and many places of interest within city.
2. Maintaining a broad economic blockade implemented by coalition aircrafts with constant bombardment to the the Syrian-Iraqi border line and regions that join between the Syrian Al-Raggah city through the borders and continuing to the city of Mosul, which contributed to the disruption of food and its scarcity within the city markets and lack the most basic decent living requirements with the loss of medicines and Medical supplies needed by the citizens and the elderly.
3.open several fronts and create a military headquarters o around the city by military and security forces and the Kurdish forces to exhaust fighters of the organization and engage it by constant confrontations with the help of the international coalition aircrafts.
4. Sending fighters of Alangmasien with their vehicles targeting military commanders of the army and Kurdish security forces in regions (Makhmor and northern Tel – Afar and Nineveh plain) for purpose of proving the existence of regulation and its control on many fronts and in all areas that can have access to it.
5. The presence of Turkish troops at camp of (Ba’shiqah) located in Jebel Ba’shiqah overlooking to the district center and in it there are more than (200) Turkish military in various ranks with their equipment , military and field devices of wheels and armored vehicles , tanks and armored cars and mechanized tankers .
6.Developing the camp of (Zlican) of the National crowd within the Sheikhan district under the supervision of Atheel Abdul Aziz Najafi , the former governor of Nineveh province ,who asked assistance of a number of Turkish commanders and officers for training and overseeing the preparation of volunteers and the creation of fighters and providing the field assistance to ensure the success of the mission of the camp.
Political reality: developments of events and facts and political and military alliances where the Rawabet Center l for Research and Strategic Studies was able to access to it after field pursuit and reading of the political scene of the city and its surroundings from the political controversies and opinions and impressions painted a picture of the near future of the city, we are able to shed light to our beloved readers by the following:
1. The political alliances that are established by the former Prime Minister of Iraq , Nouri al – Maliki with the leaders of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan ( PUK )party marked by constantly sending many of the arms shipments to the airport of Sulaymaniyah in order to be delivered to the elements of the Turkish workers ‘ Party and through the military formations of the Patriotic Union and coordinated directly by Qassem Soleimani , the supervisor of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard , who appointed ( Abu Mahdi Mohandes) to be responsible for this file and to strengthen the connection between the Baghdad government and leaders of the workers ‘ Party in northern Iraq.
2. the Turkish government and its security and intelligence services were learned with this relationship and objected to it to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan ( PUK ) leadership, as well as the leadership of the international coalition has learned about the political and military coordination between Baghdad and the Labour Party, which was continued during the presidency of Abadi of the Iraqi Ministry.
3. the leadership of the Kurdistan region of Iraq has felt of this relationship and studied the causes and objectives and has notified the United States about it by pointing out its impact on the security and military situation inside the province and surrounding areas and considered that this relationship constitutes great sensitivity.
4. The features of this relationship was shown and its fruits at the start of the the operation of the liberation of area (Rabia) north of the province of Nineveh and cooperation that began to be clear by some tribal and political figures within this region with the fighters of the Turkish workers Party ,who participated in fighting against state regulation and helped to liberate the area .
5. this relationship endeavors to influence the leadership of the Kurdistan Democratic party and its presidency of the province and find field confrontation force to influence negatively on the nature of the prevailing situations of it.
6. To provide military support for the leaders of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan ( PUK )and the MDC in the city of Sulaimaniyah with the support of Iran , which sees these leaders as a strategic ally for it and on the opposite of its opinion towards the leadership of the Democratic party that it sees it as a key ally of the Turks.
7. The Iranian security and intelligence authorities seeks to find a foothold close to the areas that surround the city of Mosul to form a field force in coordination and cooperation with the Turkish workers ‘ Party that have a future role in shaping the future of the situation in Mosul city by engaging its elements on the ground or send the formations of the popular crowd in secret to work and fight with the fighters of Turkish workers party PKK close to the surrounding areas to the Tel- Afar of the province of Nineveh , which is a strategic goal for the Iranians and militias associated with the People’s crowed due to the presence of the (Turkmen Shiites) in it before fleeing because of the entry of the fighters of the organization and their control on the district and because it is close to the city center of Mosul by a distance of 60 square kilometers.
8.the initial movements of military units of the army towards the Makhmoor sector indicate to the beginning of the vanguards of military operations towards the city of Mosul ,but moving with successive axes and times and we see it to start with the axes of (Paiji–Al -Sherquat) and the second axis (Makhmour –Al- qairah ) and this move will take a long time and needs to many Iraqi military forces and to the constant support of the international coalition aircrafts.
Will we see in a few days a new military and political alliances and the role of a major Turkish forces in operations seeking to cleanse the city of Mosul, in cooperation with the Iraqi Kurdish forces and fighters of the National crowd or there will be intelligence attempts and special operations for the Iranians and popular crowd in collaboration with the PKK toward Mosul and the surrounding areas? That’s what we will follow accurately.