The political, economic and military conditions of the current circumstances are similar with the conditions which prevailed or created for the establishment of the First and the second World War alike. Factors that contributed to the First World War summed up : from the political and military point is the creation of the international blocs and alliances, and from the economic point is the industrial and commercial competition , which was great among the European countries , especially Britain and France on the one hand and Germany on the other. As for the factors of the Second World War , it is similar to a large extent with the factors of the First World War , and we can also add some of the factors that paved the way for the establishment of the Second World War , including: the cruelty of the conditions imposed by the victorious states “allies” on the defeated nations “middle ” in The Treaty of Versailles, which led to the creation of a state of tension and hatred among the peoples of the defeated nations. And the increase of the commercial and industrial competitiveness among European countries. And the emergence of the global economic crisis as a crisis in 1929, and the failure of the League of Nations in resolving international disputes and conflicts.
At the moment, most of these factors that were not mostly present in the political, economic, military and institutional landscape of international community, in terms of the state of political polarization and political axes and the global economic crisis and military alliances and the United Nations has failed to resolve the international crisis and most recently the Syrian crisis, and Russia ‘s bid to restore its international role ,which it lost after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, and in this context ,we wonder if the human is going to face the third world war that will have repercussions on the structure of the international system?
the similarity of conditions is not necessarily to create reasons for a third world war, but this does not prevent us from saying that the international community and especially in the Middle East and on the background of the crisis in Syria and the direct military intervention of Russia in it , and also Iran is living in a state of conflict that may be an introduction to a third world war , noting that it is now a mini world war and is taken place in a specific geographical framework.
the case of the clash embodied by the direct Russian intervention in the Syrian crisis has raised many problems including:
1. the regional security threat: the Russian intervention formed a major threat to the security system in the Middle East. this interference leads to the outbreak of the conflict, if countries have abandoned its rational accounts . the shoot down of the Russian jets fighter by Turkish fighters served as a declaration of war on a major power, and almost pushing the region to the brink of war, but the Russian rational reaction , which squandered chances of the ignition of the situation , though the opportunities of the aggravation of the conflict remain exist.
2. Russian vision to resolve the Syrian crisis: Solving the crisis for Russia to hold on to president Bashar al – Assad and this contrasts with the opposition forces and their supporting forces. These contrasting visions are capable of complicating the chances of settling the Syrian crisis.
3. The absence of international consensus: where most political analyzes indicate that the Russian military intervention was done with no consensus between Russia and the United States. It is the second precedent , the former was in the Russian military intervention in the Ukrainian crisis under the pretext of protecting national security in the immediate vicinity, as opposed to the intervention in Syria, which is far from the geographical surroundings, and thus Russia has put itself in direct conflict with the United States.
So the new stage of international conflict had started from Syria, and perhaps the results of this conflict could lead to a change in the balance of world powers ,and re – arranged of powers on the top of the international system. The developments of the crisis in Syria suggest four main paths:
the first – third global war : This scenario has been put on most of the research circles seriously , especially after the drop of Turkey to the Russian fighter. And that this scenario was reinforced that Russia is returning to the interactions of international relations, it will react a painful response to Turkey, and that this response will be an introduction to the declaration of a third world war, but Russia has preempted for itself the right of reply, and proceeded to follow the punitive actions that do not live up to the rank of war. It also seemed that the United States is careful not to be involved to military action dramatically in the Middle East, as well as a number of “calls for containment and appeasement , ” which were issued by the NATO , “NATO” and European countries, a desire to de -escalation, as well as Turkey itself It became unwilling to escalation, after it realized that the bet on the “NATO” was wrong . Although this scenario has lost its momentum, and became unlikely, it will remain in place, under the successive developments in the crisis, that it is difficult to formulate frameworks governing them, by virtue of the complexity of the scene, and the overlapping of regional and international interests in it. Nevertheless, States of the ‘ major powers fear the occurrence of such kind of wars for its disastrous consequences for everyone, and working hard to avoid as much as possible.
Second , global mini war : It is more like the European war of the thirtieth year which took place between Catholics and Protestants , between “1618/1648”, now, it may be conducted by its Islamic copy between Sunni – led by Saudi Arabia and its allies in the region and between the Shiites , led by Iran and also its allies in the region. This war ,though it was a mini one and takes place in a specific geographical area, but the regional repercussions are extremely bad as it would increase the state of ruin in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon , which may establish the state of division for that State and put Egypt in front of an unknown future. As for the global repercussions of this war is the influx of refugees from the Arab East to Europe and low oil prices.
That this war would continue, perhaps even intensified , and its area will be widened , that ‘s if the affected regional powers from the Iranian invasion do not take concrete actions to address them, and hopes in this regard is put on the close Saudi – Turkish alliance as an essential axes , articulates around it the other actors in the region, including: Qatar, theUAE and the Kurdistan region of Iraq and Kuwait. As for Egypt , it is in spite of its importance and necessity , it live its ordeal as a result of its inner conditions in their own, but it is necessary to help it, and enable it to get out of the predicament through a comprehensive national dialogue, real and responsible far from the radical solutions of one direction.
Thirdly cold war –: the international parties were involved in the Syrian crisis through its agents, but the new, here, that the alliance supporting the Syrian regime has become directly involved on the ground , led by a Russian, while the other camp is still supported from abroad without direct involvement. There is no doubt that the Russian intervention could boost from the indirect long war , particularly in the case of attack of the Russian forces to the opposition in northern Syria, especially that Turkey may now find it difficult to carry out any acts of logistical support across the border because of the highly motivated Russian presence, a desire for revenge, and to prevent any Turkish reinforcements to its allies in the Syrian inside. It is difficult for the Arab Gulf states to interfere directly to support the opposition forces , but it can enhance the assistance provided to them, and may be calling large numbers of Mujahiden “AlSunee” to the Syrian inside under the tone of sectarian conflict, and who their minds were opened on the Jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan, that means the attempt to reproduce the Afghan model again. This scenario may be made, and may cause heavy losses of Russian troops, especially in the case of prolonging the crisis in time, something that Russia may not bear, at a time when its economy is suffering from the the brunt of Western sanctions, and falling oil prices.
Fourth – the new Sykes -beko division: in the sense of a tacit understanding unspoken between the two powers ( the United States – Russia) for the division of spheres of influence between them in the region – undeclared deal that will be a Russia ‘sinfluence in Syria, in exchange for the Americans to have their influence in Iraq. Perhaps the deal based on the agreement on the settlement of the Syrian crisis, that its content will be ,” the departure of Assad without the departure of the regime , ” while ensuring Russian interests, and to some extent Iran, as part of a grand bargain to ensure the US interests in the Middle East, including Israel ‘s security guarantee, and oil to some extent, and to allow for Turkey to play a role so as to ensure their safe exit from the Middle East, as part of orientation to the east, compared to Russia ‘s limited role in the Middle East, and to give up the Western sanctions imposed on Russia, because of its interference in Ukraine, and to postpone the acceptance of other countries of Eastern European countries to NATO. If the United States is determined to go out, it would go out with a logic of the “deal with the guarantees” to protect its interests which is better than to come out empty – handed.
In light of those possibilities What is the structure in which the world- system will be made.
The world- system is a Western term , it was developed in two major phases: the birth of the system Westphalia in the seventeenth century, the rise of the Western empires in the nineteenth century. The structure of the International system have varied across different historical stages of a multi – polar international system in the nineteenth century into a bipolar system of the Cold War era and to the one – polar system, and then to the disorder since the second half in 2008 and the absence of stable rules or semi – stable to compete in the second half and even to this day.
Accordingly, we establish to say that in case of the outbreak of a third world war , this will lead to the construction of a new international system along the lines of what happened after World war I and II at the event to avoid the use of weapons of mass destruction – and the victorious states identifies its feature.
but if there was one of the other three scenes , it will be a continuation of the state of disorder and not return to a multi polar system that prevailed in the nineteenth century and for the following reasons:
the United States is still the largest force in the international community , that it is in its economic, military, media and scientific capabilities outweigh all the following combined powers. But the administration to President Barack Obama has learned the limits of power, and prohibitive cost to act as a single, and indifference to the other forces of the world of the second degree. The United States has become less intrusive than it was. And more focused on maintaining superiority factors and contain the growing ambitions of countries such as Russia and China. Efforts of
Russia, for its part, is much weaker than to assume the position , which was occupied by the Soviet Union, despite its attempts to respond to western expansion and assert its role in countries such as Russia, Armenia and Central Asian countries. The greatest interest in the immediate outside of it , especially in Europe and the Caucasus, as threatened by the risks without knowing how to contain these risks.
China, on the other hand, and for structural and natural factors , almost up to the end of a strong economic growth; they do not want, in any case, to contest the direct and wide – scale conflict with the Western powers, which are still to control the global economic system. As for Europe, it was still confused between the path of unity and the preservation of the identity and sovereignty of the nation – state, and the costs imposed by each of the two choices . In summary : that events are accelerating and intertwined and challenges are growing which requires the unity of Arab countries in the face of it , and that beyond the interfacial differences .
Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center