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ارشيف

?Why John Kerry will visit Baghdad

jon-keri_Bagdad.jpg-768x506

On the twentieth of the last February , the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi requested from the House of Representatives to authorize him to form a new government of a technocratic nature , which sees a way to resolve manifold crises in  Iraq , and in this framework , the Iraqi prime minister gave in the twenty-thirtieth of the last March , to the Iraqi Council of Representatives the names of his new cabinet, which it may not be formed due to the reticence of many of Iraqi political parties on them.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi tried in the new movement by providing a list of technocratic government formation, to jump on the stalemate created by Moqtada al-Sadr against the people of his home when he led the Shiite street on the threshold walls of the Green Zone , and al-Abadi worked and aided by the whole Shiite house to impose a kind of truce agreement with al-Sadr to avoid the consequences of the chaos that could topple the governance and the political process, and to take advantage of tactical Sadr’s movement to protect the Shiite alliance in the end. This is reached by the Seven Pillars of governance in their meetings and consulted to accept the concessions of the prestige governance of the government, in exchange for preserving of the governance of loss and rolling over in front of the thresholds of the Green Zone . They were sure that Muqtada al-Sadr will not exceed dangerous limits to dissolve the governance .However, Abadi acted on the subject of the new cabinet formation as one who wants to lift the burden and throw it in Parliament Square.

Since 2003 to the present day, Iraqi affairs is no longer an internal affair issue so forming a new Iraqi government and the obstacles of its formation have Arab, regional and international significance in general and by the US administration in particular; in view of the status of Iraq in American politics. According to the availability of information by the rawabet center for Research and Strategic Studies , US Secretary of State, “John Kerry” will pay a visit to Iraq next Friday , as he will meet during his visit the President of the Republic of Iraq Fuad Masum, the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri, each separately, and he will also meet prominent political forces in Iraq, during his visit, and he will also meet with both the Prime Minister of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, “Nechirvan Barzani,” and his deputy,kubad talabani .

This visit comes as part of the military and political support provided by the United States for Iraq in its war against terrorism and on the other hand, this visit is support for the file of reforms , according to the statements of some officials in Congress and the US government . The trip is also comes on the eve of the thirteenth anniversary of the US-led international coalition that overthrew the rule of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in the ninth of April / May 2003.

this planned talks between the US minister “John Kerry” on the part of the Iraqis and politicians on the other hand will focus on ways to ensure the success of the formation of the Iraqi government, the US administration through its minister will exercise diplomatic, military and security pressure on the political process partners in Iraq in order to accelerate the formation of the new Iraqi government , the US administration aims among other things , that the Iraqi government to be formed prior to the GCC summit in Riyadh, capital of Saudi Arabia in the twenty first of this month, which was announced by the White House that President Barack Obama will take part in it.

There is no doubt, the Iraqi issue will be a GCC summit axes, it is the American perspective, if the GCC summit held with the existence of a new Iraqi government , this means that the US President Barack Obama will ask the Arab Gulf states to provide financial aid for Iraq, which is undergoing its worst economic crisis that may be reached into bankruptcy. As if the GCC summit was held and Iraq as it is now, it is impossible for US President Barack Obama to request this aid . And it will be difficult to straighten the political process in Iraq and the Iraqi political system may be collapsed and this is what the US administration does not want.

In fact, what will be achieved by a change in the government’s names will not make a fundamental change that saves Iraqi reality which is deteriorating and collapsed, those technocrats will be weaker than those based on a governing partisan force or they are their leaders, and those ministers will not have a support to protect their actions, even if they were true and pure, this what will lead to the emergence of problems in a dynamic business career for the ministers, and will not be protected by the positions of Sadr’s mass.

Iraq does not need a new government of any description if the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi waits the agreement of political blocs . Or if he has to throw on them the responsibility of blocking of the reforms. He has missed nearly two years in the hesitation and the fear of confrontation. He missed the support of the marja which no one has received it before . Unless making a real reforms to root out corruption and reforming the administration and the judiciary, and Unless risking paying Parliament to confront angry people in the street or among the forces that are indulged in the quota system, Iraq will sink further into chaos and economic collapse. The first steps of striking terrorism begins by striking the centers of power which seizes on the state and its institutions and seize political life … will the Prime Minister do it ?

Or the “technocratic government” that the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi wanted to make it as the title for his desire to carry out reforms , it does not exclude the bases of the political process based on partisan and ethnic and sectarian quotas, which has turned into trouble that threatens to be a “tragic” end for his political career after being hauled by many obstacles to form the desired government , in the forefront of it is the refusal of the political parties and blocs, including the Shiite alliance to which he belongs, for any change that snatch power from their hands to put it in the hands of technocratic ministers , non-partisan ones.

Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center

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