The next day at the Turkish elections: the regional coalition in the face of Iranian alliance


The Turkish voter  was on a date with the parliamentary elections that took place on the first of November , to frustrate  all of the public opinion polls biased and   Associated with Turkish media circles  and non-Turkish , hostile to the trends of domestic and foreign policy of the ruling Justice and Development party . Since the Turkish Prime Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on August 25 / August of this year, for new elections, to overcome the political crisis in the country brought about by the results of the parliamentary elections which took place last June.  Opinion polls were released by several research centers and the Turkish news  media    , daily, weekly, monthly and zonal in Turkey, where those  directed polls  to agree unanimously    that the Justice and Development Party will be unable to form a government alone. The Justice and Development  Party  also disappointed  the  assumption of  the “political”  analyzes based  on a sectarian basis and linked to Iran, which supposed   that  the  results of the elections will be as the death certificate  of the ruling Justice and Development party  , taking the experience of  the  former Turkish President Torgt Ozal ,
leader of the Motherland Party, who became president of the Republic (1989 m / 1993 m) and left the party as an example. But  the Turkish voter was with  another opinion, as announced in this semi-firm thunderous conclusions   of the victory of the Justice and Development party accounted for 49.4 percent , winning 316 parliamentary seats out of 550 seats  of the Grand National Council ”  in parliament,” and then being able to form the next Turkish government on its own without the need for the fragile  governmental coalitions , this result means the establishment of a regional alliance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar ,a traditional  ally of Turkey  , and may be joined by  the Arab Republic of Egypt , to be in front of an Islamic alliance that it  puts  the first of its priority of  liquidation of the differences among   its  countries and particularly between Turkey and Qatar on the one hand  and between  Egypt and the UAE on the other  hand , so this alliance aims to end the Iranian influence in the Levant, and its vanity and  arrogance, which reached  to the level of   declaration by one official  of  the Iranian  political system   to control  on four Arab capitals, “Damascus, Baghdad and Sana’a and Beirut.”

The  agenda  of this coalition  will be  to rise and strongly involved in the solution of the outstanding regional issues, as it will contribute to the solution of the Syrian protracted crisis, according to the aspirations of the Syrian people to get rid of the dictator of Syria Bashar  Alassad, and not  according to the wishes of his  allies in Russia and Iran and his allies of militias deployed in Some  the Arab eastern  countries in keeping him in power . It will also work towards the achievement of national reconciliation among the components of Iraqi society, especially among the most important  components , Sunni and Shiite  which Iran has worked to keep them apart by former Iraqi Prime Minister (2006/2014) Nuri al-Maliki. This reconciliation will lead to the integration of Iraq’s Sunnis in the Iraqi political system, so there is no recovery and the effectiveness of this political system unless all its components are  melting to produce a contemporary modernist civil state which is quite different from the State of velayat-e faqih that Iran is trying to copy her experience of theocracy in Iraq. In Yemen, this alliance will accelerate  through a storm of Arab  alhazim  to the defeat of the Houthis and the Iranian project in Yemen and its return to the pre-Huthi military coup in September / September last year, and re-activate the GCC initiative that was announced in April / May 2011, as a way to settle the Yemeni uprising that erupted against the ousted Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh rule  who  preferred his survival in power on the account of  his people , and to avenge by   collaborating with rebels and Iranians for the delivery of Yemen to Iran, but that plan  was turned down  by Saudi Arabia and its allies by the operation of the storm of Alhazim  , as it will be completely gone with the regional alliance, frustrating Iran’s attempts to impose its  geo-strategically  hegemony on the southern Arabian Peninsula. In Lebanon, Iran’s influence will take more time to end it, so  at this stage , and  it will be considerably undermined   of the functional role of its ally Hezbollah there, a party that does not mind since its inception and to this day, to be its tool of sabotage in the  Arab East, especially in Syria and Lebanon.

This alliance has the diplomatic, economic, and religious possibilities to end the influence of the Iranian state, being composed of the pivotal states in the Middle East, ie Turkey is  an emerging  regional power  of a demographic heavyweight , and features of  a strategic location, it contributed to a multiplicity of circuits (European, Western Atlantic,  Asian mid-east  , Central Asia  and the Islamic Caucasus , the Black Sea, the Balkans.” The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is  related to the strategic  bonds that includes the Arabian Peninsula, the Arab world, the Middle East and  the Indian Ocean, and it is   within twenty countries – the stronger economically   in the international community, they have the papers of  power through which  to influence the course of events in the regional environment. Not to mention what  the kingdom represents  as a State of the Two Holy Mosques, and  of the great symbolism in the hearts of Muslims in general  and Sunni  in private . The  evidence  of that was  the position of  Islamic public opinion   especially among Sunnis in the world who stood with Saudi Arabia against Iranian attempts of  sabotage in the last Hajj season .

As  Egypt has something to offer to this alliance of diplomacy , military force and human resources  and can not  be underestimated   if employed properly, and exceeded its internal crisis to achieve national reconciliation with political Islam .  while Qatar and the UAE have the energy, both oil and gas, there is also an added value for each of these countries, all of them overlooking on more than one  sea  , Egypt, for example, oversees the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, and Turkey in addition to overlooking the Mediterranean sea ,  It also oversees the Sea of ​​Marmara and the Aegean. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, overlooking the Arabian Gulf, and this potential and the resources available to each of its members thus we find our self  in front of  Geostrategic alliance   can strongly impose its will on  rivals . Accordingly, this   alliance  will have  Western backing of both the United States and the European Union-especially the United Kingdom, which have the desire again to play a prominent role in the Middle east issues -, all the countries involved in this alliance  have  good relations with the first and the second ones , and  this alliance will be  of great benefit for them as a power   in the face of Iran’s aggressive policies, and Russia in the Caucasus,  Add to that , what belongs to this alliance encourages everyone to cooperate with them , on the contrary of Russian-Iranian alliance, which is suffering from the decline of its economy due to the decline in global oil prices.

But the question that arises in this context, although it has been superseded by the results of the recent elections, but it is important to view it in this context? What  was the hope of  Iran and its allies   from the results of these elections? Iran is well aware of the difficult  to drive the Justice and Development Party  out of Turkey’s entire electoral scene, and then completely excluded  from the political scene in Turkey, they were wishing for itself that the  results of  previous parliamentary elections to be   repeated , this means that the Justice and Development Party will not be able to form the   coming Turkish government  alone, making it back to the first square  and  oblige it to enter a new round of  the negotiations to form a coalition Government with the opposition parties represented in the Turkish parliament . What are  gains of this to Iran?

It can be said with this expectation, that a change  will be introduced to the Turkish foreign policy, but this change will not be radical or transformative; as in the event  that the Justice and Development Party  was able to form a coalition government , the largest share in the government will be for it , but at the same time will not be able to make fateful decisions specifically toward the foreign policy issues; Due to the existence of significant opposition in parliament, and the party that  share it , will  press on it.

The formation of the coalition government means that Turkey’s foreign policy will not be as it was under the Justice and Development Party. Republican People’s Party is not in line with the policies of the Justice and Development Party on Syria and on Egypt affairs . The Party of the Democratic peoples will not be a partner in a coalition with the ruling Justice and Development except in accordance with very high conditions which can not be accepted by the ruling party . The Nationalist Movement Party is also strongly opposed to the policy of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and calls him  to stop the Turkish intervention in the affairs of the Middle East, especially in Syria, which, in its opinion, do not serve   except the Greater Middle East  project of the United States of America .

The nature and form of a change will be more clearly decided    after the  knowledge of the participant party with  the Justice and Development Party, and who will be in charge of the  bag of the Foreign Ministry. And so with regard to the opportunities for change at the level of foreign policy in a Government  the Nationalist Movement Party take part in   will be less  than involvement of  the Government of the Republican People’s Party. Because the  rapprochement of the first with the intellectual premises of  the Justice and Development Party.

It is likely in this context that any party which will share the Justice and Development Party within this coalition will seek to reduce the role of the president in deciding the foreign policy  , it does not mean that  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will  give up to intervene and give his opinion, as a stopover for this is contrary to his character and  historic role .
So ,   the contents of the game theory in international relations  will be applied to this  coalition   government, as there will be a regional loser and a winner , As for  the loser: the Arab Gulf states, because it will  disrupt the coalition of  Turkey,  Saudi, Qatar  to overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and possibly Turkey may come out of this alliance, and that    was not wanted by   Saudi Arabia and  Qatar, and  this government will evaluate the Turkish ,  Saudi , and Qatari  alliance in the face of expansion of Iranian expansionist project in the Arab East. The  coalition government , despite the importance of Iraq in the Turkish foreign policy, but it will move backward  on the subject of integration of the Sunnis  in the political process.

The winner will be Iran and its regional allies of the State and non-State actors, because they will get rid of the privacy of the  Justice and Development Party in the formulation of Turkish foreign policy that stood out clearly against the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and to criticize the internal Iraqi politics based on exclusion of the Sunnis, this exclusion, which serves Iranian policy in Iraq , any future coalition government will object to this approach due to the the good relations that combine Turkish opposition parties and Iran, and supports disproportionately Bashar al-Assad to stay in power, and the role of Iran in Iraq and the entire region.

Hence, we understand the overwhelming celebration expressed by the Iranian media, and those of the two Syrian and Iraqi regimes , and also Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis, after the announcement of the results of previous Turkish elections, as it approaches to the ceremonial of the western  media when  the  international news Agency  deliberated  the news of  the dissolution of the Soviet Union, where  Fars News Agency of  Iran which is close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said : that the repercussions of the Syrian curse would pursue  Erdogan and neo-Ottoman, for what they had done  of  massacres against the Syrian people and the peoples of the region as well as their allies  in  Saudi Arabia and Qatar” It also said “the Turkish people stood firm against the   aspirations of Ottoman Erdogan , and  grave it   forever. ” The means of the Syrian media celebrated of  what it was called “blow to Erdogan’s expansionist dreams” and claimed that the result reflects the refusal of the Turkish people for “the tyranny of the Sultan.” As well as  of  the Iraqi, Lebanese, Yemeni newspapers funded by Iran.

Therefore, the restriction of Turkish foreign policy by constituting a coalition government and undermine  the role of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey will pour in the short and medium term for the benefit of Iran politically, economically and militarily that   Iran will take its breath with this important variable. And the loss of the Arab side, particularly in the Persian Gulf because it is difficult to make partnership   or the establishment of any functional alliance to confront Iran with a coalition government in Turkey. Thus, the Arab Gulf states may be in front of requirements of the  second exposure  after the first  geo-strategic exposure   represented by  the occupation of Iraq and joining the Iranian axis, and the second with the formation of a weak coalition government in Turkey  which will be busy with its Interior   issues.

But Turkish voters frustrated this perception, and surprised everyone who was willing  to surprise them such as Iran and its allies but not surprised those who read  carefully the political scene in Turkey, especially after the parliamentary elections that took place last June,  that the Turkish  voter  refused  to be manipulated of his destiny  by  the fragile political parties and regional states . Therefore we say that the foreign policy of Turkey in accordance with the results of the   semi- confirmed elections  and according to political harmony that exists between the presidency  and the prime minister  and  the Grand National Council, “parliament”,  is to encourage the establishment of a regional coalition to root out Iranian influence in the Levant, so  the satisfaction and joy that have appeared in the media in some Arab Gulf States of the results of those elections, are  only a prelude to the formation of this alliance.

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