The misfortunes of Arabs are advantages to the Iranian regime

The  political realities  witnessed by the Arab environment, especially oriental ones since 2003 to the present day demonstrate that  it  is pouring directly in favor of the Iranian regime, through : first the  calamity of the US occupation  of Iraq under former President George W. Bush’s “2001 -2009 m,”  on the ninth of April / May 2003. This occupation was   a strategic service  given  by it to the Iranian regime, which get rid of a formidable enemy to stand  for several decades in the face of its  expansion projects in the Levant. And the happiness of the Iranian regime to topple former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s regime can be likened to the happiness of administration of former US President George W. Bush “1989 -1993 m” When it  learned   of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which was a  international pole ,  competitor to it  in the Cold War era “1945/1991”. the political documents indicate that former US President George W. Bush , when he heard of this news , he  jumped – with great joy-    from his presidential seat in the White House. It seems that this joy is also pulled out to all the offices of the Iranian regime when  it  received the news of the occupation of Iraq.

Iranian regime was  not satisfied with  the  happiness and joy in the expression of this strategic event, but it goes beyond than that noting   that it had changed  a lot of scales on the Iraqi, Arab and regional level  and   no exaggeration if we say  on the international level  . And because this event  is not repeated constantly in international relations. The Iranian regime wanted to take advantage  fully with all their material and moral  force since  it considered the occupation of Iraq as a historic opportunity for it  to  tighten  its  influence, impact and control  over it. This is what has already been done because Iraq has become in the era of Nuri al-Maliki, former Prime Minister of Iraq, “2006/2014” , with all the political, historical, cultural, economic, security, economic and military destinies, as  an  office subject to  the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

The second catastrophe ,  which  may be artificially done by regional or international states or by  both of them and that befell  to the countries of the Levant and  the Iranian regime has benefited  from it to the high extent which greatly to serve its  interests in it  ,  is the emergence of the state organization  in Iraq and the Levant “Daash”  on the scene in Syria and Iraq, respectively.  According to the first and to what has become known  by  Arab  and Western media   , the  Arab Spring ,  as the Iranian regime  considered  what happened in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen as an extension of the Iranian revolution, but when the  breaths of  that spring  arrived  on the fifteenth of March  2011,  to the Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad , it  considered it as  an international conspiracy against the axis “of opposition and resistance”! Instead of pursuing the reformist Approaches by its ally ,  the Syrian regime  relied on  the military and security solution  in the face of protests against his rule  , and this solution  led to  the militarization of the Syrian uprising against the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and  his control over Syrian territory started to decline . To counter this decline ,  a variable appearance must be  existed to contribute to the strengthening of the Syrian regime and at the same time  to  weaken the Syrian uprising and this is what has been done  with the emergence of state regulation in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” in Syria in the  year 2013, this organization  which  adopt extremist ideas that  have nothing to do with Islamic  Shareaa (law) as  it considers  any one who disagree with it as “infidel” and  must be killed.

From here it can be seen as the emergence of this organization at a time when the Syrian regime was reeling  as a counter-reaction to the Syrian uprising. The Iranian regime has benefited from the emergence of the state organization in Syria, which may be  made by  the Syrian regime and the international  ally , Russia , to convey a collective message to international community that what is happening in Syria is not a People’s Uprising against  the tyrant   governor – as they thought –   but  they are acts of terrorism must be addressed by All states , so the Iranian regime to has  sent its  Shiite militia from various countries and international community,  and on the forefront is the Hezbollah, under the pretext of counter takfiri organization(expiatory) but in fact , it has sent these militias to fight the Syrian opposition  which is effectively against   the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. As the Iranian regime and its militia forces  failed to the elimination  of the Syrian armed opposition , it  resorted to Russia to intervene militarily under the pretext of the fight against state regulation “Daash.” As on the thirtieth of September last year, Russia has  abandoned about its indirect military support  to the Syrian regime to direct military intervention in the Syrian crisis. Thus, by this Russian military intervention ,  it has become three forces  “the Iranian regime, and the Syrian regime, and Russia” in the face of the Syrian armed opposition under the pretext of the fight against state regulation. This appearance planned  carefully to state regulation formed   a disaster for the    Sunni  social  component  in Syria. Sunni zones  that receive lava of the Syrian and Russian aircrafts .  it is worth to be noted that millions of displaced people came out from these places  inside Syria and refugees abroad.

The third of the andirons besieging the city of Aleppo which is considered as a shift in the open conflict in Syria. Aleppo is the economic capital. A Sunni city, close to Turkey. But the siege of the city  has its  field effects and  prices  on the table of  any serious negotiations that will be taken place later.  the philosophy of history ” says  the sermon or lesson , the significance and meaning”  that  theaters of  devastating wars are no longer  as they were when the guns fall silent. If things continue in the same direction,  another Syria will be born again after the battle of Aleppo is complete, Syria will not resemble what came before. It’s hard to take at the negotiating table what  can not be taken  on the ground .It would be difficult for the Syrian opposition after the battle of Aleppo,  to insist on a date for the departure of President Bashar al-Assad. In this context, we can say that the state regulation emergence in Syria was the reason for the continuation of Bashar al-Assad in power up to now, and perhaps in the coming decade, or the division of Syria and this is indicated  ( I  “mean  the division here,”) several days ago ,  by the US intelligence director, “John Brennan,”  saying: “Syria is destined for partition”, this division will give  Bashar al-Assad  a statelet  where  Iran and Russia will exercise  their influence on it .

The  intervention of  Russia militarily and directly, marked the beginning of the partition. It was confirmed later to focus on certain areas and tighten control on it . And indulgence in the military  deal with other areas, some are more important and vital from the perspective of control over Syrian territory, and to keep  it  “united”. When Russia was bombing the Syrian opposition forces, allegedly to hit the centralization of state regulation in Syria, “Daash” points, the US administration has supported and justified and did not object. But the US has refused to arm   the opposition  with  anti-aircraft missiles, to defend itself against the Russian bombardment. It confirms that it from the beginning to fool the Syrians, and manipulating to the opposition. It  does not raise its  hand in the face of Russia,   by objection or a warning, but  content  and welcome. The purpose of the appearance of state regulation of “suspicious” in the context of the Syrian issue has been achieved, so as to preserve the interests of the Iranian regime in Syria, whether united or divided.

As for the second calamity of the Levant countries marked by an  strategic interest  of the Iranian regime, is the emergence of state regulation in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” in Iraq, in June 2014,  noting that  the organization enabled  to control over the province of Nineveh “Mosul,” , and in turn , it was able to extend its control over all of Iraq’s provinces with a Sunni character. This organization, as we explained previously  is an extremist organization and the Iraqi people  must therefore be from the Iranian viewpoint , especially the Shiite him to fight it  in order  the Iranian regime to reap the gains of this appearance. The first of these gains is  the founding of the popular crowd “in the thirteenth of June 2014, based on an advisor opinion “fatwa of  Jihad Ulkipaia “issued by the supreme religious authority( marjaa) in Iraq. It was the integration of the Shiite factions and  militias in Iraq , a pro-Iranian regime and Velaval-efaqih  to that organization    and , and expectations vary on the number of fighters of these militias, but it was estimated by tens of thousands.  the emergence of state regulation “Daash” in Iraq was the  main reason for  the issue of this  fatwa and these militias .

Despite all the crimes and abuses and  sectarian systematic practices , carried out by the militia of the popular crowd in Iraq, since the date of its participation in military operations in the  “Sunni” provinces of Iraq, during and after the start of the operations of the liberalization of the cities that fall into the hands of state regulation  (Daash) starting from the city of Tikrit in  March 2015 until the battle of Fallujah in July 2016, as these practices reached  up to the level of crimes against human rights and these crimes, “the crime of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, these crimes according to Article v of the Statute of the international Criminal Court apply to the actions of the militias  of the popular crowd in the rest of the Sunni provinces.

And in spite of all   official regional and international  and humanitarian and human rights objections, but the  establishment of it  as a major influential and dominant military and security force   in Iraq,   is  going on  project in full swing, as a key part of the phases of the  implementation of the Iranian project to export the “Islamic revolution”; as the president of the Council of Ministers and Commander Forces armed Haider Abadi, issued  a  Dioanaa order  stipulate to  the structuring of the crowd and transform  its  fighters into a military class   parallel to  the  anti- terrorism service . The former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Mohsen Rafiqdost, which is one of the most prominent founders of the Guard after the Iranian revolution in 1979, it was proposed last month, the formation of an “Iraqi Revolutionary Guards” on the lines of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard  by contribution directly from the Iranian regime in the arming and training and transfer of expertise. Also  this decision came in line with the advice of a member of the Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy in the Iranian Shura Council, MP Mohammad Júcar, Iraq to implement Iranian experience regarding the “Revolutionary Guards”, and saying, “We are ready to supply Iraqi troops ith the pattern of these forces and its structure, to enable Iraq to form forces  its guards. “

The decision of  Structural of  militias of  popular crowd is  to pave the way for it  to participate in the battle of Mosul,  noting that all the national , regional and international  parties  were refusing  the  participation of popular crowed  in it  taking in to the consideration  that it was   undisciplined organization  , especially after widespread international criticism directed at it after the crimes committed against Sunni citizens in the provinces of Diyala, Salahuddin and Anbar and Babylon (rock cliff), the last battle of Fallujah and its outskirts. Following the Nineveh province  battles and “liberation”, is the emergence of the state of  “the crowd” dominant on the Iraqi government and its policy, and  will also be a pillar of aggression and interference in the internal affairs of countries in the Arab region and the non-Arab. Then , Iraqis will know , and perhaps all those interested in Iraqi affairs in the world, the critical role of the militias of  the popular crowd, in geopolitical change in Iraq, in favor of the Iranian hegemony and the awful project of velayat-e faqih  in the region. Iraq after the battle of Mosul will not resemble what came before,

The second Iranian gains from the emergence of state regulation “Daash” in Iraq is the contribution of each of the state regulation and militias of the popular crowd in achieving what  the Iranian regime aspires to the evacuation   the Sunni provinces  from its citizens, noting that both of them  agreed to kill and displace and achieve the demographic  change , each according to its justification, thus the Regulation of State is  doing so in accordance with the conviction that  each one who disagree with it  ,  he would be  punished, and the militias  adopted in its crimes of killing and displacement  on  the  distorted historical memory .This  evacuation  in  its essence, aims to find to the Iranian regime a land  corridor   linked it to its allies   in Syria, whether unified or divided and  In Lebanon, Hezbollah.While a third Iranian gains from that appearing embodied in  the emergence of military officials Iranians in the Iraqi military scene openly as Qassem Soleimani  commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards appeared during the battle of  Fallujah, and did not stop at this level and cut the road to any internal and external opposition , the Iraqi Government appointed  Qassem Soleimani  as a military adviser of it .

Based on the above, we can say:  the Iranian regime has not any active role in the calamity of  the occupation of the United States to Iraq in April / May 2003, but this  regime  was able to make use of its  consequences to serve its  geo-political interests  in the Arab  and Middle Eastern and international environment The calamity  of the emergence of al State in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” in Syria in 2013 and Iraq in 2014 Which form prominence tragedy for each of the Syria   Sunni uprising and the  Syrian Sunni  social component and the Sunni in Iraq and which came to serve the  strategic interests  of the Iranian regime  in both countries, so it is difficult to accept the idea that the Iranian regime has not any hand  to  the emergence of state regulation “Daash”   or  measure in  its emergence.  Arab poet ,al Mutanabi was telling the truth  when he said in one of his poems  “the misfortunes of some people are advantages to others   noting that the misfortunes of  Arabs  are  the advantages to   the Iranian regime .

Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center