The misfortunes of Arabs are advantages to the Iranian regime

The political realities witnessed by the Arab environment, especially oriental ones since 2003 to the present day demonstrate that it is pouring directly in favor of the Iranian regime, through : first the calamity of the US occupation of Iraq under former President George W. Bush’s “2001 -2009 m,” on the ninth of April / May 2003. This occupation was a strategic service given by it to the Iranian regime, which get rid of a formidable enemy to stand for several decades in the face of its expansion projects in the Levant. And the happiness of the Iranian regime to topple former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s regime can be likened to the happiness of administration of former US President George W. Bush “1989 -1993 m” When it learned of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which was a international pole , competitor to it in the Cold War era “1945/1991”. the political documents indicate that former US President George W. Bush , when he heard of this news , he jumped – with great joy- from his presidential seat in the White House. It seems that this joy is also pulled out to all the offices of the Iranian regime when it received the news of the occupation of Iraq.

Iranian regime was not satisfied with the happiness and joy in the expression of this strategic event, but it goes beyond than that noting that it had changed a lot of scales on the Iraqi, Arab and regional level and no exaggeration if we say on the international level . And because this event is not repeated constantly in international relations. The Iranian regime wanted to take advantage fully with all their material and moral force since it considered the occupation of Iraq as a historic opportunity for it to tighten its influence, impact and control over it. This is what has already been done because Iraq has become in the era of Nuri al-Maliki, former Prime Minister of Iraq, “2006/2014” , with all the political, historical, cultural, economic, security, economic and military destinies, as an office subject to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

The second catastrophe , which may be artificially done by regional or international states or by both of them and that befell to the countries of the Levant and the Iranian regime has benefited from it to the high extent which greatly to serve its interests in it , is the emergence of the state organization in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” on the scene in Syria and Iraq, respectively. According to the first and to what has become known by Arab and Western media , the Arab Spring , as the Iranian regime considered what happened in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen as an extension of the Iranian revolution, but when the breaths of that spring arrived on the fifteenth of March 2011, to the Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad , it considered it as an international conspiracy against the axis “of opposition and resistance”! Instead of pursuing the reformist Approaches by its ally , the Syrian regime relied on the military and security solution in the face of protests against his rule , and this solution led to the militarization of the Syrian uprising against the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and his control over Syrian territory started to decline . To counter this decline , a variable appearance must be existed to contribute to the strengthening of the Syrian regime and at the same time to weaken the Syrian uprising and this is what has been done with the emergence of state regulation in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” in Syria in the year 2013, this organization which adopt extremist ideas that have nothing to do with Islamic Shareaa (law) as it considers any one who disagree with it as “infidel” and must be killed.

From here it can be seen as the emergence of this organization at a time when the Syrian regime was reeling as a counter-reaction to the Syrian uprising. The Iranian regime has benefited from the emergence of the state organization in Syria, which may be made by the Syrian regime and the international ally , Russia , to convey a collective message to international community that what is happening in Syria is not a People’s Uprising against the tyrant governor – as they thought – but they are acts of terrorism must be addressed by All states , so the Iranian regime to has sent its Shiite militia from various countries and international community, and on the forefront is the Hezbollah, under the pretext of counter takfiri organization(expiatory) but in fact , it has sent these militias to fight the Syrian opposition which is effectively against the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. As the Iranian regime and its militia forces failed to the elimination of the Syrian armed opposition , it resorted to Russia to intervene militarily under the pretext of the fight against state regulation “Daash.” As on the thirtieth of September last year, Russia has abandoned about its indirect military support to the Syrian regime to direct military intervention in the Syrian crisis. Thus, by this Russian military intervention , it has become three forces “the Iranian regime, and the Syrian regime, and Russia” in the face of the Syrian armed opposition under the pretext of the fight against state regulation. This appearance planned carefully to state regulation formed a disaster for the Sunni social component in Syria. Sunni zones that receive lava of the Syrian and Russian aircrafts . it is worth to be noted that millions of displaced people came out from these places inside Syria and refugees abroad.

The third of the andirons besieging the city of Aleppo which is considered as a shift in the open conflict in Syria. Aleppo is the economic capital. A Sunni city, close to Turkey. But the siege of the city has its field effects and prices on the table of any serious negotiations that will be taken place later. the philosophy of history ” says the sermon or lesson , the significance and meaning” that theaters of devastating wars are no longer as they were when the guns fall silent. If things continue in the same direction, another Syria will be born again after the battle of Aleppo is complete, Syria will not resemble what came before. It’s hard to take at the negotiating table what can not be taken on the ground .It would be difficult for the Syrian opposition after the battle of Aleppo, to insist on a date for the departure of President Bashar al-Assad. In this context, we can say that the state regulation emergence in Syria was the reason for the continuation of Bashar al-Assad in power up to now, and perhaps in the coming decade, or the division of Syria and this is indicated ( I “mean the division here,”) several days ago , by the US intelligence director, “John Brennan,” saying: “Syria is destined for partition”, this division will give Bashar al-Assad a statelet where Iran and Russia will exercise their influence on it .

The intervention of Russia militarily and directly, marked the beginning of the partition. It was confirmed later to focus on certain areas and tighten control on it . And indulgence in the military deal with other areas, some are more important and vital from the perspective of control over Syrian territory, and to keep it “united”. When Russia was bombing the Syrian opposition forces, allegedly to hit the centralization of state regulation in Syria, “Daash” points, the US administration has supported and justified and did not object. But the US has refused to arm the opposition with anti-aircraft missiles, to defend itself against the Russian bombardment. It confirms that it from the beginning to fool the Syrians, and manipulating to the opposition. It does not raise its hand in the face of Russia, by objection or a warning, but content and welcome. The purpose of the appearance of state regulation of “suspicious” in the context of the Syrian issue has been achieved, so as to preserve the interests of the Iranian regime in Syria, whether united or divided.

As for the second calamity of the Levant countries marked by an strategic interest of the Iranian regime, is the emergence of state regulation in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” in Iraq, in June 2014, noting that the organization enabled to control over the province of Nineveh “Mosul,” , and in turn , it was able to extend its control over all of Iraq’s provinces with a Sunni character. This organization, as we explained previously is an extremist organization and the Iraqi people must therefore be from the Iranian viewpoint , especially the Shiite him to fight it in order the Iranian regime to reap the gains of this appearance. The first of these gains is the founding of the popular crowd “in the thirteenth of June 2014, based on an advisor opinion “fatwa of Jihad Ulkipaia “issued by the supreme religious authority( marjaa) in Iraq. It was the integration of the Shiite factions and militias in Iraq , a pro-Iranian regime and Velaval-efaqih to that organization and , and expectations vary on the number of fighters of these militias, but it was estimated by tens of thousands. the emergence of state regulation “Daash” in Iraq was the main reason for the issue of this fatwa and these militias .

Despite all the crimes and abuses and sectarian systematic practices , carried out by the militia of the popular crowd in Iraq, since the date of its participation in military operations in the “Sunni” provinces of Iraq, during and after the start of the operations of the liberalization of the cities that fall into the hands of state regulation (Daash) starting from the city of Tikrit in March 2015 until the battle of Fallujah in July 2016, as these practices reached up to the level of crimes against human rights and these crimes, “the crime of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, these crimes according to Article v of the Statute of the international Criminal Court apply to the actions of the militias of the popular crowd in the rest of the Sunni provinces.

And in spite of all official regional and international and humanitarian and human rights objections, but the establishment of it as a major influential and dominant military and security force in Iraq, is going on project in full swing, as a key part of the phases of the implementation of the Iranian project to export the “Islamic revolution”; as the president of the Council of Ministers and Commander Forces armed Haider Abadi, issued a Dioanaa order stipulate to the structuring of the crowd and transform its fighters into a military class parallel to the anti- terrorism service . The former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Mohsen Rafiqdost, which is one of the most prominent founders of the Guard after the Iranian revolution in 1979, it was proposed last month, the formation of an “Iraqi Revolutionary Guards” on the lines of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard by contribution directly from the Iranian regime in the arming and training and transfer of expertise. Also this decision came in line with the advice of a member of the Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy in the Iranian Shura Council, MP Mohammad Júcar, Iraq to implement Iranian experience regarding the “Revolutionary Guards”, and saying, “We are ready to supply Iraqi troops ith the pattern of these forces and its structure, to enable Iraq to form forces its guards. “

The decision of Structural of militias of popular crowd is to pave the way for it to participate in the battle of Mosul, noting that all the national , regional and international parties were refusing the participation of popular crowed in it taking in to the consideration that it was undisciplined organization , especially after widespread international criticism directed at it after the crimes committed against Sunni citizens in the provinces of Diyala, Salahuddin and Anbar and Babylon (rock cliff), the last battle of Fallujah and its outskirts. Following the Nineveh province battles and “liberation”, is the emergence of the state of “the crowd” dominant on the Iraqi government and its policy, and will also be a pillar of aggression and interference in the internal affairs of countries in the Arab region and the non-Arab. Then , Iraqis will know , and perhaps all those interested in Iraqi affairs in the world, the critical role of the militias of the popular crowd, in geopolitical change in Iraq, in favor of the Iranian hegemony and the awful project of velayat-e faqih in the region. Iraq after the battle of Mosul will not resemble what came before,

The second Iranian gains from the emergence of state regulation “Daash” in Iraq is the contribution of each of the state regulation and militias of the popular crowd in achieving what the Iranian regime aspires to the evacuation the Sunni provinces from its citizens, noting that both of them agreed to kill and displace and achieve the demographic change , each according to its justification, thus the Regulation of State is doing so in accordance with the conviction that each one who disagree with it , he would be punished, and the militias adopted in its crimes of killing and displacement on the distorted historical memory .This evacuation in its essence, aims to find to the Iranian regime a land corridor linked it to its allies in Syria, whether unified or divided and In Lebanon, Hezbollah.While a third Iranian gains from that appearing embodied in the emergence of military officials Iranians in the Iraqi military scene openly as Qassem Soleimani commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards appeared during the battle of Fallujah, and did not stop at this level and cut the road to any internal and external opposition , the Iraqi Government appointed Qassem Soleimani as a military adviser of it .

Based on the above, we can say: the Iranian regime has not any active role in the calamity of the occupation of the United States to Iraq in April / May 2003, but this regime was able to make use of its consequences to serve its geo-political interests in the Arab and Middle Eastern and international environment The calamity of the emergence of al State in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” in Syria in 2013 and Iraq in 2014 Which form prominence tragedy for each of the Syria Sunni uprising and the Syrian Sunni social component and the Sunni in Iraq and which came to serve the strategic interests of the Iranian regime in both countries, so it is difficult to accept the idea that the Iranian regime has not any hand to the emergence of state regulation “Daash” or measure in its emergence. Arab poet ,al Mutanabi was telling the truth when he said in one of his poems “the misfortunes of some people are advantages to others noting that the misfortunes of Arabs are the advantages to the Iranian regime .

Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center